Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
