Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
